🔮 Forecast Explorer — Verify → Improve
This release adds a new Forecast Explorer to the Forecast page, turning Zeus forecasts into measurable learning evidence.
Forecast versus reality
Users can now compare:
- Solar forecast vs actual solar production
- Home demand forecast vs actual consumption
- Forecast error
- Learned / forecast uncertainty range
The explorer supports:
- Day view
- Week view
- Month view
- Previous / next period navigation
- Direct date selection
- Hover details for forecast, actual, error and expected range
📊 Honest Historical Evidence
Zeus only displays historical comparisons when a forecast or pre-day plan was genuinely stored before the target period and measured data later became available.
Missing historical forecasts are never reconstructed or invented.
When hourly historical evidence is unavailable but a genuine completed daily forecast exists, Day view displays a transparent Daily Summary instead of manufacturing hourly data.
🧠 Learned Error Ranges
Forecast uncertainty is now visible directly in the comparison chart.
Where sufficient evidence exists, Zeus uses learned forecast error. Otherwise it uses the available forecast uncertainty range.
This extends the Zeus learning cycle:
Observe → Learn → Predict → Recommend → Verify → Improve
💧 DHW Temperature Correction
DHW Intelligence now correctly distinguishes between:
- Actual boiler / stored hot-water temperature
- ELWA internal / element temperature
The boiler temperature is used for DHW readiness and intelligence, while the ELWA temperature remains available for its proper control, safety and diagnostic role.
💰 Finance Energy Balance
Whole-home Finance calculations were corrected to follow the physical energy balance:
Direct Solar = Solar Production − Grid Export − Battery Charging
Home Consumption = Grid Import + Direct Solar + Battery Discharge
This brings Zeus whole-home consumption into alignment with Home Assistant Energy measurements.
The redundant Finance summary strip was also removed.
🛡️ Data Integrity
Forecast Explorer does not backfill imaginary predictions.
Actual values are displayed only when genuine measured evidence exists, and missing data remains explicitly unavailable.
✅ Safety
Battery and energy intelligence remains recommendation-only.
No autonomous battery or inverter commands are introduced by this release.
Thanks to the community for the detailed feedback and ideas that continue to improve Zeus using real-world Home Assistant systems.